There is no doubt that the left has the Lone Star State in their sights in 2020. There have been pronouncements from Hillary Clinton and Nancy Pelosi to the fact. Of course, they were emboldened by the November 2018 midterm elections here in Texas with the loss of 12 Texas State House seats, two Texas State Senate seats, two US Congressional seats (one of which is the district in which I reside), and 56 Judge positions.
There were some other very disconcerting results from a year ago, such as Senator Ted Cruz barely defeating Bob Frank O’Rourke — including Cruz not winning in the Tarrant County (Ft. Worth) area. Interestingly enough, there are those who are still dismissive of reports that the progressive socialist could win Texas, writing them off as a pipe dream. Not when they are so close to flipping the Texas State House!
It really comes down to two factors. Having a good ground game . . . registering people to vote, is one. In Texas, we have 6.7M who are registered to vote who do not. We have 4.1M who are not even registered to vote!
The other critical factor is enthusiasm, energy, and that was something the left certainly had in November 2018. Voter energy is derived from inspiration, and if you have been following the results of the Texas 2019 legislative session and the travails of Texas House Speaker, Dennis Bonnen, we have an issue there with grassroots conservatives.
Now a poll has been released by the very left-leaning University of Texas, or Texas University to Texas A&M Aggies, in conjunction with the left-leaning Texas Tribune. The results are very interesting and potentially deceiving.
From the Texas Tribune:
“None of the top Democrats seeking the presidential nomination would beat President Donald Trump in Texas in an election held today — and neither would either of the Texas candidates in that race, according to the latest University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll.
Joe Biden of Delaware, the former vice president, is running 7 percentage points behind Trump in Texas, as is U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts. U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont falls 5 percentage points short in a head-to-head with the president among Texas voters. And the two Texas candidates also lag behind Trump: former U.S. Rep. Beto [Bob Frank] O’Rourke of El Paso (who dropped out of the race Friday, after the poll was completed) by 6 percentage points, and former U.S. Housing Secretary and San Antonio Mayor Julián Castro by 13 percentage points.
In each matchup, significant numbers of Democrats are holding back their votes — possibly a sign that while they oppose the Republican incumbent, they favor a different Democrat. For instance, 89% of Republicans say they would support Trump over Biden, and 5% say they would favor Biden, leaving 6% unwilling to pick. But in the same race, 82% of Democrats favor Biden, and 4% favor Trump, leaving 14% who either like another Democrat more or don’t want to pick yet. The biggest gap was in the Trump-Castro matchup, where 93% of Republicans have a definite choice and only 71% of Democrats do.
“I don’t think this is a reflection of what’s going to happen in the election, but as we move from registered voters to likely voters in Texas, we tend to get more Republican [results],” said Joshua Blank, research director of the Texas Politics Project at UT-Austin.
While Trump is doing well against those Democrats in Texas, he’s not faring as well when voters are asked whether they will vote for his reelection. Slightly more than half say they “definitely” (46%) or “probably” (6%) will not vote for Trump in 2020. Meanwhile, 40% say they will “definitely” vote for the president’s reelection, and 8% “probably” will.
The University of Texas/Texas Tribune internet survey of 1,200 registered voters was conducted from Oct. 18-27 and has an overall margin of error of +/- 2.83 percentage points, and an overall margin of error of +/- 4.21 percentage points for Democratic trial ballots. Numbers in charts might not add up to 100% because of rounding.”
You can view the poll results charts here.
There are those who may just see this poll and wrongly fall into a celebratory mode. I would advise against this. As a matter of fact, this poll should not even be considered.
First of all, I do not know the survey universe, and the region of Texas surveyed is critical. But, what does concern me is that President Trump is stuck between 45-47 percent in each of those head to head matchups. The goal is for that number to be 55-60 percent.
We need to do a much better job with Independents as they are a critical buffer to preclude the normal practices of progressive socialist voter fraud. Remember, one must win far outside of the “margin of cheating.”
As well, it is imperative that we do not have voters who just go in and pull the lever for Donald Trump and walk out of the voting booth. We must educate and inform Texas voters about the importance of keeping a strong Texas conservative legislature and win back the losses from a year ago.
When one considers all of the businesses and corporations that are moving into Texas, this poll should reflect much stronger numbers. Then again, it is early. However, Texas is a state with great economic growth, opportunity, and promise for all relocating from here, such as Toyota North America headquarters from California.
Also, we must do a much better job with young Texans on our college and university campuses, and those in our growing tech workforce. Texas is growing in information technology innovation, investment, and ingenuity. The policies of progressive socialism do not support that growth.
As a matter of fact, even Amazon is getting involved in local and city council elections in its home base, Seattle, after the move towards implementing a Head Tax . . . something we have shared with y’all previously. I would not be surprised if a city like Austin, Texas would seek to implement a like-minded tax within its city limits. After all, progressive socialist birds of a feather, promote failed policies together.
There is much work to do here in Texas in the next 52 weeks. Texas remains solid red, strong, in the areas outside of the major population centers. But, we must be laser-focused and strategic in targeting our message of economic empowerment, success, in those blue areas, population centers, and along the Rio Grande River Valley.
The election is a year away, time to git ‘er dun! Yes, again our rally cry here in Texas must again be, “Come and Take It!”